Which Cities Are Seeing the Largest Declines in Middle Class Households?

Updated: September 4, 2024

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Being middle class in America is often associated with financial stability and security, social identity, consumer power and economic fairness. Until the early 2000s, middle-income households represented the largest share of Americans. However, that share of the middle class has steadily declined over time.

To better understand this shift, MoneyGeek analyzed the American middle-class landscape of 597 cities over five years, focusing on income. Our analysis uncovered that 61% of all cities considered experienced declines in the percentage of middle-income households between 2017 and 2022. Below we focus on the 367 cities where the middle class shrank in that timeframe.

MIDDLE CLASS IN THE US: KEY FINDINGS
  • Middle-income households comprise roughly 41% of all households studywide, with the highest percentage found in West Jordan, Utah (53%), and the lowest in Champaign, Illinois (34%).

  • Middle-class income is shrinking most in the Southern and Western regions, with the biggest losses for each found in Springdale, Arkansas (-12%), and Yorba Linda, California (-9%).

  • No Northeastern cities rank among the 25 cities with the biggest five-year decreases in the percentage of middle-income households.

  • Among large cities, Henderson, Nevada, is where the middle class shrank the most (-4%). However, 66 small and midsize cities saw bigger losses than Henderson.

Middle-Income Households Shrinking Most in Small and Midsize Cities

The middle class is shrinking in most of the over 500 small and midsize cities (those with a population below 250,000) we analyzed. At a 12% decline, Springdale, Arkansas, (population 86,000), had the most significant loss of middle-income groups between 2017 and 2022. Carmel, Indiana, and Rockville, Maryland, followed with an 11% and 10% decrease, respectively. Four California cities (Yorba Linda, Union City, Bellflower and Castro Valley) all had decreases exceeding 8%.

In cities of this size, the median middle-class income is between $22,024 (in Flint, Michigan) and $384,582 (in San Ramon, California).

SMALL AND MIDSIZE CITIES WHERE THE MIDDLE CLASS IS SHRINKING
Rank
City
Difference in Middle-Income Households (2017–22)
Population (2022)
Middle-Income Households (2022)
Middle Income Floor (2022)
Middle Income Ceiling (2022)

1

Springdale, AR

-12.0%

85.8K

43.2%

$39,351

$118,054

2

Carmel, IN

-10.7%

101.3K

41.0%

$86,888

$260,664

3

Rockville, MD

-9.7%

66.9K

37.2%

$70,892

$212,676

4

Yorba Linda, CA

-9.3%

67.1K

42.0%

$101,023

$303,068

5

The Woodlands, TX

-9.2%

118.0K

35.0%

$91,557

$274,670

6

Union City, CA

-8.8%

67.0K

38.4%

$98,973

$296,920

7

Bellflower, CA

-8.6%

76.4K

37.5%

$49,421

$148,262

8

Castro Valley, CA

-8.2%

66.5K

38.0%

$88,857

$266,570

9

O'Fallon, MO

-8.1%

93.6K

45.7%

$70,160

$210,480

10

Sandy Springs, GA

-8.1%

107.8K

39.1%

$69,596

$208,788

Note: Some percentages in the table above may appear tied due to rounding; however, the actual values differ slightly.

Large City Trends for the Middle Class

Large cities often offer greater amenities and resources for residents but can come with high living costs that usually offset larger incomes. In these higher-population areas, middle-class income ranges between $24,302 (in Detroit) and $273,384 (in San Francisco). In all of the large cities analyzed, however, none had declines above 5% in the percentage of middle-income households.

With over 330,000 residents, Henderson, Nevada, had the highest rate of households that fell out of the middle class (4%). Other Western cities — like Anchorage, Alaska, and Santa Ana, California — and one Southern city — Virginia Beach, Virginia — follow, all of which fell just below a 4% decrease.

LARGE CITIES WHERE THE MIDDLE CLASS IS SHRINKING
Rank
City
Difference in Middle-Income Households (2017–22)
Population (2022)
Middle-Income Households (2022)
Middle Income Floor (2022)
Middle Income Ceiling (2022)

1

Henderson, NV

-4.1%

331.4K

41.1%

$54,463

$163,390

2

Virginia Beach, VA

-3.8%

455.6K

43.0%

$55,497

$166,490

3

Anchorage, AK

-3.6%

287.1K

42.5%

$67,167

$201,502

4

Santa Ana, CA

-3.5%

308.2K

45.1%

$52,901

$158,702

5

Chesapeake, VA

-3.4%

252.5K

41.6%

$58,499

$175,498

6

Bakersfield, CA

-3.3%

410.7K

40.7%

$48,011

$144,034

7

Raleigh, NC

-3.2%

477.1K

43.1%

$50,283

$150,848

8

North Las Vegas, NV

-3.1%

280.5K

43.4%

$50,306

$150,918

9

St. Petersburg, FL

-2.9%

261.2K

39.3%

$46,627

$139,882

10

Irving, TX

-2.6%

254.7K

46.0%

$52,217

$156,652

America's 10 Largest Cities Remain Accessible for Middle-Income Earners

With populations reaching as high as 8.3 million, the 10 largest cities are often known for their glamor and high cost of living. Surprisingly, the middle class's share of income has not shifted much in these big cities.

The largest decline in middle-income households was in San Diego (2%). The two most populous U.S. cities (New York and Los Angeles) saw just under a 2% drop between 2017 and 2022. In others, the percentage of middle-income households actually increased — Philadelphia and San Antonio grew by 3% and 1%, respectively.

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Methodology

MoneyGeek analyzed income data from the U.S. Census one-year American Community Survey (ACS) for nearly 600 cities to uncover where the middle class is shrinking the most. Of those, 367 showed declines in the percentage of middle-income households between 2017 and 2022.

We calculated the middle-class income range in each location using the Pew Research Center criteria, which defines ‘middle class’ as two-thirds to double the median household income. We then used the lognormal distribution and the cumulative distribution function to estimate the proportion of households in the local middle-income range. Since we didn't have an upper limit for the bin for the “$200,000 or more” income range, we used the lower limit ($200,000) as the bin center.

We did this process for both 2017 and 2022 income data. Our final ranking is based on the percentage point difference between the percentage of middle-income households in 2022 and 2017. The top city had the largest decrease in the proportion of middle-income households.

In this analysis of the middle class's share of income in U.S. cities, we use the phrase "middle class" alongside "middle income." However, it is important to note that middle class and middle income are not entirely interchangeable, and there are other factors that contribute to the perception of "being middle class.”

Full Dataset

Below is the data that informed our analysis. We used income as our key indicator to determine the middle-income range in each city and calculate the number of households within these parameters. Note: Cities with 0% for a five-year percentage point difference appear so due to rounding but did have minor decreases overall.

Rank
City
Difference in Middle-Income Households (2017–22)
Middle-Income Households (2022)
Middle Income Floor (2022)
Middle Income Ceiling (2022)
Population (2022)

1

Springdale, AR

-12.0%

43.2%

$39,351

$118,054

85844

2

Carmel, IN

-10.7%

41.0%

$86,888

$260,664

101286

3

Rockville, MD

-9.7%

37.2%

$70,892

$212,676

66915

4

Yorba Linda, CA

-9.3%

42.0%

$101,023

$303,068

67077

5

The Woodlands, TX

-9.2%

35.0%

$91,557

$274,670

117970

6

Union City, CA

-8.8%

38.4%

$98,973

$296,920

67049

7

Bellflower, CA

-8.6%

37.5%

$49,421

$148,262

76405

8

Castro Valley, CA

-8.2%

38.0%

$88,857

$266,570

66506

9

O'Fallon, MO

-8.1%

45.7%

$70,160

$210,480

93648

10

Sandy Springs, GA

-8.1%

39.1%

$69,596

$208,788

107767

11

Layton, UT

-8.0%

47.6%

$66,790

$200,370

82600

About Anja Solum, CEPF


Anja Solum, CEPF headshot

Anja Solum is a certified educator in personal finance and the Data Journalism Manager at MoneyGeek. For over six years, she has produced data analyses and studies for agency and in-house teams across multiple verticals.

Solum holds a bachelor's degree in communication arts from Florida International University. She's passionate about using data to tell compelling, informed stories that empower readers.


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