Winter's Deadliest Roads: 2026 State Rankings Show Where Drivers Are at Greatest Risk

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Winter-weather crashes killed 1,579 people between 2020 and 2023, an average of 395 deaths a year. Drivers in 15 states have higher fatal crash risks. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio rank highest.

MoneyGeek analyzed crash data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and Federal Highway Administration vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) data. We combined these with MoneyGeek's safe driver scores and ranked all 50 states by a weighted Winter Danger Score.

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KEY FINDINGS
  • Michigan remains the most dangerous state for winter driving. The state averages 39 fatalities per winter, with a fatality rate of 0.41 deaths per billion VMT.
  • Pennsylvania moved up to #2 from #3. Ohio jumped from #5 to #3, with high crash totals and a fatality rate above the national average.
  • Alaska dropped two spots to #4, even though it still posts the nation's highest fatality rate at 1.35 deaths per billion VMT. Fewer total crashes and a better safe driver score pulled its combined ranking down.
  • New York's eight-spot climb from #20 to #12 was the largest of any state in the top 15.

Most Dangerous States for Winter Driving

Icy and snowy roads are a reality for drivers across much of the country, but how dangerous that driving gets varies by state. MoneyGeek pulled FARS data from 2020 through 2023 and combined fatality rates per billion vehicle miles traveled with each state's safe driver score to produce the rankings.

Michigan tops the rankings. Its 156 winter-weather fatalities over four years are the highest in the study, and its 0.41 fatality rate per billion VMT leads the group. Pennsylvania and Ohio are close behind. Both recorded more than 100 winter-weather deaths during the study period.

Alaska doesn't have the highest total deaths, but its winter fatality rate of 1.35 per billion VMT is the highest in the nation. No other state comes close on a per-mile basis.

Top 15 Most Dangerous States for Winter Driving (2025)

1
Michigan
100
0.41
2
Pennsylvania
71.8
0.28
3
Ohio
66.5
0.24
4
Alaska
62.8
1.35
5
Illinois
61.7
0.24
6
Wyoming
61.3
1.01
7
Montana
60.1
0.87
8
Colorado
49.7
0.30
9
Wisconsin
49.4
0.29
10
Minnesota
45.8
0.31
11
Indiana
43.8
0.21
12
New York
38.2
0.14
13
Texas
35
0.04
14
South Dakota
31.1
0.50
15
Oregon
30.9
0.24

Insurance Implications for High-Risk Winter States

Winter driving is unpredictable. Icy roads and reduced visibility mean accidents happen even when drivers are paying attention. Drivers in the highest-risk states should review whether their car insurance coverage addresses winter-specific incidents.

Coverage Types Worth Reviewing

  • Collision coverage pays for vehicle damage when you hit another car or object on icy roads or in snow. Without it, you pay for repairs out of pocket regardless of fault.
  • Comprehensive coverage covers noncollision incidents like branches breaking under ice weight, hail damage to parked cars or deer strikes on rural roads.
  • Uninsured/underinsured motorist coverage pays for damage in multi-car pileups when another driver doesn't carry enough insurance. In states with low minimum coverage requirements, gaps in other drivers' policies are common.
  • Medical payments or personal injury protection (PIP) covers medical bills for you and your passengers regardless of who was at fault. Even a low-speed collision on ice can cause injuries that add up quickly.
  • Roadside assistance and towing run $10 to $30 a year and cover towing, battery jumps, fuel delivery and lockout services. A breakdown in freezing temperatures can quickly become a safety emergency.

State-Specific Considerations

State insurance rules shape how winter claims get processed. In Michigan, your own insurer pays for injuries under a modified no-fault system, regardless of who caused the accident. Pennsylvania gives drivers a choice between limited tort and full tort coverage. That choice determines whether you can sue for damages. Ohio is fault-based: the at-fault driver's insurer pays.

Rates also vary by carrier within the same state. Drivers in the top 15 should compare quotes from multiple insurers each year and check whether their policy includes comprehensive and collision coverage.

How Winter Accidents Affect Your Rates

Icy-road accidents where you're not at fault rarely raise your premium. At-fault accidents are different. Rate increases depend on your insurer, driving history and state regulations, but accident forgiveness coverage can prevent an increase after your first at-fault accident.

Claim frequency matters more than any single incident. Multiple winter claims over a few years tell insurers you're a higher-risk driver, even when each accident seemed small. For minor damage, run the math on whether paying out of pocket costs less over time than a rate increase would.

Comprehensive claims for weather-related damage carry less premium risk than at-fault collision claims. Insurers rate weather events differently because you're not at the wheel when a branch falls or hail hits.

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For a summer companion, see MoneyGeek's America's 100 Deadliest Driving Days study, which applies the same fatality-rate methodology to June through August.

Methodology

MoneyGeek analyzed FARS crash data (NHTSA) from 2020 to 2023 to identify the most dangerous states for winter driving. Winter-weather crashes included road conditions with sleet, snow, blowing snow or freezing drizzle.

We calculated three metrics for each state:

  • Total winter driving fatalities (2020 to 2023): Fatal incidents in winter-weather conditions. Double weight.
  • Winter driving fatality rate: Fatalities per billion vehicle miles traveled, using FHWA VM-2 VMT totals for 2020 to 2023. Full weight.
  • Safe driver score: MoneyGeek's score from our national study rating the states with the safest and worst drivers. The score (0 to 100) was inverted to reflect unsafe-driving risk. Half weight.
  • We normalized each metric to a 100-point scale and rescaled the combined result to produce the Final Winter Danger Score, where 100 is the most dangerous state.

Full Dataset

2025 rank: The state's winter driving rank using its Final Winter Danger Score. Lower ranks mean more dangerous conditions.

2024 rank: The state's rank from MoneyGeek's previous study for year-over-year comparison.

Final winter danger score: Combined score from weighted metrics. A score of 100 represents the most dangerous state.

Total winter driving fatalities (2020 to 2023): NHTSA-reported driving fatalities with road conditions of sleet, snow, blowing snow or freezing drizzle.

Winter driving fatality rate: Winter driving fatalities per billion vehicle miles traveled.

Safe driver score: MoneyGeek's state driver safety score, scaled from 0 to 100. A score of 100 represents the safest state.

Michigan
1
1
100
156
0.41
72.6
Pennsylvania
2
3
71.8
110
0.28
65.3
Ohio
3
5
66.5
104
0.24
67.6
Alaska
4
2
62.8
30
1.35
60.0
Illinois
5
7
61.7
95
0.24
67.2
Wyoming
6
4
61.3
40
1.01
41.4
Montana
7
6
60.1
46
0.87
42.2
Colorado
8
8
49.7
63
0.30
49.2
Wisconsin
9
9
49.4
74
0.29
77.5
Minnesota
10
10
45.8
70
0.31
87.2
Indiana
11
11
43.8
69
0.21
78.3
New York
12
20
38.2
63
0.14
79.1
Texas
13
13
35
51
0.04
48.8
South Dakota
14
12
31.1
20
0.50
54.3
Oregon
15
15
30.9
34
0.24
52.8
Missouri
16
17
30.8
37
0.16
56.5
West Virginia
17
16
30.4
25
0.53
60.1
Kansas
18
14
29.8
33
0.36
64.4
Nebraska
19
19
29.4
31
0.44
70.9
Vermont
20
27
26.7
13
0.48
69.6
Washington
21
30
25.7
22
0.14
60.6
Maine
22
29
25.2
19
0.35
66.3
North Dakota
23
21
24.7
14
0.53
59.4
Kentucky
24
24
24.5
24
0.17
57.0
Tennessee
25
25
24.3
28
0.13
59.0
Utah
26
31
23.1
41
0.34
81.4
Oklahoma
27
36
22.7
10
0.08
56.6
Arkansas
28
34
22.4
9
0.09
56.4
Virginia
29
32
21.5
18
0.08
56.1
New Mexico
30
18
21.1
18
0.20
28.4
Idaho
31
22
20.9
23
0.36
66.9
North Carolina
32
37
19.7
13
0.04
61.3
Arizona
33
33
18.8
10
0.03
52.8
Georgia
34
42
18.5
8
0.02
63.3
Massachusetts
35
39
18.1
23
0.13
82.2
New Hampshire
36
23
17.6
14
0.37
60.6
California
37
38
16.7
23
0.02
63.2
Louisiana
38
43
16.6
3
0.01
56.0
Maryland
39
45
16.2
9
0.06
73.2
New Jersey
40
47
15.8
13
0.06
84.0
Rhode Island
41
45
14.9
1
0.05
70.3
Delaware
42
44
14.3
1
0.03
59.0
Florida
43
47
13.8
1
0.00
73.5
Alabama
44
46
13.6
1
0.00
64.4
Mississippi
45
35
12.7
6
0.04
52.3
South Carolina
46
25
12.3
3
0.02
30.5
Iowa
47
28
11.8
39
0.30
78.5
Hawaii
48
50
5.3
0
0.00
73.2
Connecticut
49
40
4.8
13
0.13
72.5
Nevada
50
41
4.2
5
0.03
64.4

About Myryah Irby

Myryah Irby headshot

Myryah Irby is a writer and data journalist at MoneyGeek. Her work spans original data studies and how-to guides covering auto, home and health insurance, consumer costs, and transportation safety.

Research and Analysis

Since joining MoneyGeek in late 2025, Irby has produced data studies on insurance costs, consumer spending and transportation risk. Her published work includes a 50-state analysis of winter driving danger using fatality and weather severity data; research tracking the relationship between rhodium commodity prices and catalytic converter theft rates, including state-level theft trends and what those rates mean for insurance costs; a state-by-state comparison of winter home heating costs; and an analysis of the full cost of having a baby in America: hospital bills, insurance and out-of-pocket expenses.

Career

Irby has more than 20 years of editorial and writing experience. Since 2005, she has run Irby x Irby, her own editorial and copywriting practice, with clients including The New York Times, The San Francisco Chronicle, OpenAI and the National Park Service. From 2019 to 2023, she served as Senior Managing Editor and then Copywriting Manager at Callisto Media, a nonfiction publisher acquired by Penguin Random House in May 2023, where she led a team of writers and graphic designers.

Before that, she spent nearly 11 years at QuinStreet, a performance marketing company that runs content and comparison sites in insurance and personal finance. She rose from Managing Editor to Senior Managing Editor between 2010 and 2016. Earlier in her career, she edited at Collabrys for nearly four years and tutored doctoral candidates on dissertation writing at the University of San Francisco.

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