ACA Subsidy Cliff 2027: $1 Over the Limit Costs a 60-Year-Old $11,652 a Year

A single 60-year-old who earns $63,840 in 2027 pays no more than $6,524 a year for the benchmark Silver plan on an Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. One dollar more, and the premium tax credit stops. The same plan then costs its full price, an average of $18,176 a year, or $11,652 more. That's $971 more every month.

That jump is the ACA subsidy cliff. Federal premium tax credits end at 400% of the federal poverty level: $63,840 for one person and $86,560 for a couple in 48 states and D.C. for 2027 coverage. The expanded credits that began in 2021 had removed that limit. They expired at the end of 2025, and 2027 is the second year without them.

Age sets the size of the fall. MoneyGeek measured the cliff at ages 26, 40, 50 and 60 in all 50 states and D.C. The average cliff at 26 is $867, and 15 states and D.C. have none. A 60-year-old's is more than 13 times as large.

The cliff grew from 2026, the first year without the expanded credits. At 60, it averaged $9,814 for 2026 coverage. For 2027, it's $11,652, up 18.7%. Benchmark premiums at 60 rose 13.3%, while the most a buyer pays at the limit rose 4.6%.

More marketplace shoppers pay full price than before the credits expired. CMS data shows 3.1 million people picked a 2026 marketplace plan without a tax credit, up from 1.9 million in 2025. These figures come from MoneyGeek's analysis of 2027 benchmark plans, the second-lowest-cost Silver plan in each area, which sets tax credit amounts. For the average price of every Silver plan, see MoneyGeek's study of 2027 ACA premiums.

Earning $1 over the income limit costs a single 60-year-old $11,652 a year in 2027, on average. A 26-year-old in the same spot pays $867 more. Premium tax credits stop at the same income for everyone. The benchmark plan's full price rises with age.

Up to the limit, a buyer pays no more than 10.22% of income for the benchmark plan, the second-lowest-cost Silver plan where they live, under IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26. At $63,840, that's $6,524 a year at any age. Above the limit, the buyer pays the plan's full price. Under ACA age rating, the oldest adults can be charged three times what a 21-year-old pays, and the full price for a 60-year-old averages twice the price for a 40-year-old.

At 26, the full-price benchmark plan costs less than $6,524 a year in 15 states and D.C. A 26-year-old there gets no tax credit at $63,840 of income, and there's no credit to lose one dollar later. By 50, every state has a cliff.

At 60, the full price equals 28.5% of income at the limit, on average, and 47.4% in West Virginia. The full price wouldn't fall to 10.22% of income until a single 60-year-old earned $177,852. MoneyGeek's study of ACA premiums at age 59 puts the jump at $10,951 a year at 59.

Insurers in New York and Vermont charge every adult the same rate. Their cliffs are the same at every age: $6,357 in New York and $9,236 in Vermont. Vermont's cliff is the largest of any state at 26 and at 40.

Alaska has the largest subsidy cliff at 60 for 2027. Its higher income limit, $79,800, raises what a buyer pays at the limit to $8,156 a year, and earning $1 more still adds $24,072 to a single 60-year-old's benchmark premium. West Virginia ($23,711) and Wyoming ($23,185) are the other states above $20,000. At 60, the cliff tops $10,000 in 34 states and D.C.

Massachusetts has the smallest cliff at 60, $4,975, followed by Maryland ($6,023) and New Hampshire ($6,260).

Each age column shows the added yearly cost of the benchmark Silver plan when a single person earns $1 over the 2027 income limit. A $0 means the full price is less than the capped amount at that age. The last column compares the cliff at 60 with 2026.

The cliff at 60 grew 18.7% for 2027, from $9,814 to $11,652, on average. Benchmark premiums for a 60-year-old rose 13.3%, about three times the 4.6% increase in what a buyer pays at the limit, now $6,524.

The cliff at 60 grew in 48 states and D.C. Alaska had the largest increase, $5,524, and joined West Virginia and Wyoming above $20,000. Montana ($4,703) and Delaware ($4,416) followed.

It shrank in two states. Arkansas's cliff fell $733 after its benchmark premium dropped 2.2%. Vermont's fell $117 because its premiums barely changed while the cap rose.

At 40, the cliff grew 50%, from $1,655 to $2,482. It now applies in 46 states and D.C., up from 40 states and D.C. in 2026.

A married couple's income limit for 2027 is $86,560 in 48 states and D.C. At that income, two 60-year-olds pay no more than $8,846 a year for benchmark coverage. One dollar more, and they pay the full price of two benchmark plans, an average of $36,318 a year. The jump is $27,471.

West Virginia has the largest couples' cliff at 60, $51,624 a year. Massachusetts has the smallest, $14,153. For a couple who are both 50, the cliff averages $15,654.

These figures assume both spouses buy the benchmark plan and count the federal tax credit only. Alaska and Hawaii, which use higher poverty guidelines, aren't included in the couples figures.

CMS data shows 3,095,104 people picked a 2026 marketplace plan without a premium tax credit, 13.4% of the 23.1 million plan selections. In 2025, when the expanded credits had no income limit, 1,939,576 people did, or 8.0%. These counts include anyone who didn't receive a credit for any reason. Some didn't apply for one.

Paid enrollment fell too. A KFF analysis of CMS data shows February 2026 effectuated enrollment, the count of people who paid their premium, dropped to 19.2 million from 21.8 million a year earlier, a 12% decline. The share of plan selections that turned into paid coverage fell from 90% to 83%.

The largest cliffs fall on buyers closest to Medicare age. Adults 55 to 64 accounted for 5.2 million 2026 plan selections, or 22.4%, CMS open enrollment data shows.

The figures in this study count the federal tax credit only. A few states offer their own premium help to some buyers above 400% of the poverty level for 2027:

• New Jersey: New Jersey Health Plan Savings covers households with income up to 600% of the poverty level, $95,760 for one person, the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance says. Open enrollment on Get Covered New Jersey runs through Jan. 31, 2027.
• Connecticut: Enrollees with income above 400% and up to 500% of the poverty level get state help that replaces half of the expanded federal credit they lost, CT Mirror reported. Everyone who qualified in 2026 qualifies again in 2027, the outlet reported.
• New Mexico: State premium assistance through beWellnm runs through June 30, 2027, beWellnm says. New Mexico's program has helped buyers above 400% of the poverty level since the expanded federal credits expired.

Other state programs, such as California's and Maryland's, stop at or below 400% of the poverty level. Check your state's marketplace for 2027 amounts before you rule out help.

MoneyGeek measured the annual full price of the benchmark Silver plan for a single nonsmoker at ages 26, 40, 50 and 60 in each of the 50 states and D.C. for the 2027 plan year. It compared that price with the most a buyer pays for the same plan at the federal income limit. Each H3 below is a collapsible section on the page.