Where in the US Will Heating Your Home Cost More This Winter?

Last winter, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected a 21% decrease in heating expenditures via natural gas. However, with factors such as anticipated colder temperatures across the country and lower retail costs for natural gas, heating costs for 2024 to 2025 are expected to be the same or slightly less than the previous year.

To explore how natural gas prices could affect U.S. households this winter, MoneyGeek analyzed data from the EIA to find which states are expected to see the largest changes in heating prices this year. We also determined which regions are expected to see the most significant bill changes since last winter.

Using household data from the recently released EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey, natural gas consumption figures and average residential prices, MoneyGeek forecasted average heating bills across the U.S. and ranked the states with the highest expenses in expected heating bills for winter in 2024 to 2025.

Michigan residents are expected to have the largest increase in heating bills of any state this winter, at an estimated difference of $13 per month. Though the cost of heating will be highest in the Northeast, all of the 10 states with the highest increases compared to last winter are located in the Midwest.

Overall, natural gas customers across the country will see similar or slightly cheaper heating costs this winter; however, price changes won't impact every region of the United States equally. Below, MoneyGeek ranked the areas with the highest expected percentage changes in heating costs this winter, along with the top three most expensive states for heating in each region.

With an expected 11% increase, the Midwest will experience the highest average rise in heating costs this winter. When looking at average monthly heating bills per state in this region, the most expensive are Michigan ($135), Missouri ($132) and Ohio ($113). Each of these states has the largest increases in costs compared to last winter (over $10 monthly).

The Northeast will see the second-highest rise in heating costs, with residents expecting a 1% price increase this season. Rhode Island has the most expensive heating bills at $189 per month. Connecticut customers will likely pay $132, and those in Massachusetts are expected to pay $129 per month. These states will see the smallest change in cost compared to last winter.

Keeping your home warm will be 4% less expensive in the South this year. The priciest states for heating in this region are Georgia ($113), Delaware ($106) and Tennessee ($101). Customers in these states will see savings on average this winter compared to last, paying roughly $3 less per month.

Residents in the West will pay 6% less in winter 2024 than in 2023, the biggest decrease compared to other regions. The highest heating costs can be found in Alaska ($154), Utah ($133) and Washington ($119). Customers in this region will save over $8 per month on their winter heating bills compared to last year.

While alternative heating methods like space heaters and fireplaces can help reduce costs, the National Fire Protection Association’s (NFPA) 2022 Home Heating Fires Report shows these devices are the leading cause of fires in U.S. homes.

Before using space heaters or fireplaces, look into help with your heating bill. Some households qualify for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which covers heating costs. Winterizing your home also cuts expenses while minimizing fire risks.

Insurance coverage for alternative heating varies widely. A space heater or fireplace might help lower your monthly bill, but many homeowners discover their policy doesn't fully cover fires from these devices. Check which winter home insurance claims your policy covers before using space heaters or fireplaces, and make sure you have adequate renters insurance or homeowners insurance to cover repair or replacement costs if a fire occurs.

MoneyGeek analyzed data from the EIA to estimate how much more natural gas heating will cost around the country this winter (2024 to 2025) than it did last (2023 to 2024).

We calculated 2023 natural gas heating bills per household using gas consumption data and retail prices for residential customers from November 2023.

Our data team used the EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook to determine how consumption and prices will change for winter in 2024 to 2025.

MoneyGeek used household data from the 2020 EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) (the latest release) to estimate the number of households using natural gas. We used this figure to help estimate natural gas expenditures per household in each state for 2024 to 2025.

Limitations: Regional projections for consumption and prices from the EIA were used to generate 2024 to 2025 figures rather than projections for each state. This methodology reflects the percentage change figures for states in each of those regions. November 2023 gas consumption and pricing data are unavailable for Maine and Tennessee, so we used December 2023 and November 2022 data, respectively, to fill the gap.

The data points presented are defined as follows:

• Rank: Ranked in order of largest to smallest projected Change in Monthly Cost.
• Change in Monthly Cost: The difference between the monthly household natural gas bill in winter 2024–2025 and winter 2023–2024.
• Monthly Natural Gas Bill per Household (2024–2025): Uses EIA Winter Fuels Outlook projections by region — considering increased consumption and prices — to estimate natural gas heating costs per household per month.
• Monthly Natural Gas Bill per Household (2023–2024): Calculated by multiplying total residential consumption (McF) by residential retail prices from November 2022, divided by the total number of households using natural gas for heating purposes.