Private Home Insurers Are Exiting 46 of California's 58 Counties Amid Rising Wildfire Risk

Private insurers wrote 28% fewer California homeowners policies in 2023 than in 2020. In 46 of 58 counties, nonrenewals outnumbered new policies written, meaning the private market actively contracted across most of the state. The California Department of Insurance recorded 788,485 homeowners policy nonrenewals statewide in 2023. The CDI estimates 20% to 25% of those were insurer-initiated; the remainder reflect policyholder decisions like switching carriers or selling a home.

The pullback shows up most clearly in FAIR Plan enrollment. California's FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort, grew from 242,440 residential policies in September 2021 to 642,010 in September 2025, a 165% increase. Before placing a FAIR Plan policy, a broker must conduct a diligent search of the traditional market, so enrollment growth tracks directly where private insurers have stopped writing policies.

MoneyGeek analyzed six independent datasets to map where insurer pullback is most severe and which homeowners are left relying on the state's backup option: county-level wildfire risk data from FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025), building exposure data from the USDA's Wildfire Risk to Communities database (May 2025), enrollment records and ZIP-code-level exposure data from the California FAIR Plan (September 2025), nonrenewal data from the California Department of Insurance (2020 to 2023) and home values from the Zillow Home Value Index (February 2026). Because these datasets cover different reporting periods, the analysis is cross-sectional rather than a single point-in-time snapshot.

The table below ranks the 15 California counties with the highest nonrenewal rates in 2023. Each of these counties also ranks in the top 10% nationally for wildfire risk according to USDA data.

California’s FAIR Plan enrollment has grown 165% since 2021. The FAIR Plan isn’t a discount option or a government subsidy. Before placing a policy, a broker must conduct a diligent search of the traditional market, so FAIR Plan enrollment serves as a proxy for residential properties that couldn't find private market coverage. That residential policy count went from 242,440 in September 2021 to 642,010 in September 2025.

Los Angeles County leads the state with 154,765 FAIR Plan policies as of September 2025, an 83% increase over four years. San Bernardino County follows with 65,132 policies (109% growth), then San Diego at 59,063 (379% growth) and Riverside at 57,026 (509% growth).

These four counties alone hold 335,986 FAIR Plan policies, 52% of the statewide total. All four carry FEMA’s highest wildfire risk rating of “Very High.”

The following table shows the counties with the most FAIR Plan policies.

The growth isn’t limited to Southern California’s largest metro areas. El Dorado County in the Sierra Nevada foothills has 28,167 FAIR Plan policies, up 100% since 2021. Orange County jumped 481% to 23,748 policies. Nevada County, with a population just over 102,000, now has 23,438 FAIR Plan policies.

County averages can mask sharp local concentrations of risk. FAIR Plan exposure data broken down by ZIP code, measured in total insured value (TIV), shows where the state’s backup insurer is shouldering the most financial risk.

Statewide, residential FAIR Plan TIV reached $633 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, up 314% from $153 billion four years earlier. The 15 ZIP codes with the highest FAIR Plan residential TIV carry $83 billion, 13% of the statewide total.

Truckee-area ZIP 96161, which spans Placer and Nevada counties, leads all California ZIP codes with $9.1 billion in FAIR Plan residential exposure, a 224% increase since 2021. Lake Arrowhead (92352) in San Bernardino County follows at $7 billion. Placerville (95667) in El Dorado County ranks third at $6.8 billion, up 132% over four years.

Los Angeles County places four ZIP codes in the top 15: Beverly Hills (90210) at $6 billion, Calabasas (91302) at $5.4 billion, Malibu (90265) at $5.1 billion and Brentwood (90049) at $4.8 billion. All four are in or adjacent to the Santa Monica Mountains, one of the state’s most wildfire-prone corridors.

Several ZIP codes show sharp four-year growth that reflects new risk zones where private insurers have recently pulled back. Orinda (94563) in Contra Costa County grew more than 2,600%, from $207 million to $5.7 billion in TIV. Fallbrook (92028) in San Diego County surged nearly 800%. These aren't only remote mountain communities. They also include suburban neighborhoods where FAIR Plan reliance has risen rapidly.

Across the state, 172 ZIP codes now carry $1 billion or more in FAIR Plan residential exposure, and those ZIP codes account for 59% of the statewide total. Four years ago, the same threshold would have captured far fewer communities.

Two independent federal datasets confirm which California counties are most at risk from wildfire: FEMA’s National Risk Index and the USDA’s Wildfire Risk to Communities model.

FEMA’s index covers multiple hazards, but for this analysis, MoneyGeek uses only the wildfire-specific fields: expected annual loss and county wildfire risk rating. Four California counties carry FEMA's "Very High" wildfire risk rating: San Diego, Riverside, Los Angeles and San Bernardino. San Diego County alone accounts for $430 million in expected annual wildfire loss, the highest of any county in the state. Riverside follows at $347 million, Los Angeles at $155 million and San Bernardino at $146 million.

Together, those four counties represent 60% of California’s total expected annual wildfire loss of $1.79 billion.

The USDA’s model measures something different: the percentage of buildings in each county that are in the direct path of potential wildfire. By this measure, rural Sierra Nevada and Northern California counties are the most exposed.

Across the state, 19 counties have more than half their building stock directly exposed to wildfire, according to USDA data. And 44 of California’s 58 counties rank in the top 10% nationally for wildfire risk.

The data show a consistent pattern: as wildfire risk increases, private insurance availability drops, nonrenewal rates climb, and FAIR Plan enrollment grows.

MoneyGeek cross-referenced September 2025 FAIR Plan county policy counts with FEMA’s National Risk Index to find that of the 642,010 active policies, roughly 580,000, or 90%, were in counties FEMA rates as “Relatively High” or “Very High” for wildfire risk. Only 10% were in counties with moderate, low or very low ratings.

That concentration matters because the FAIR Plan was never designed to be a primary insurer for hundreds of thousands of properties. It offers more limited coverage than most private policies, and its premiums have risen as its risk pool has expanded. A standard FAIR Plan policy doesn't cover theft, liability or water damage. Homeowners who need broader coverage must buy a separate difference-in-conditions (DIC) policy from a private insurer.

The counties with the steepest FAIR Plan growth rates show how quickly private insurers are pulling back from new areas. Contra Costa County went from 1,094 FAIR Plan policies in 2021 to 12,837 in 2025, a 1,073% increase. Solano County grew 799%, from 146 to 1,312 policies. Riverside County, already one of the state’s most wildfire-prone areas, saw 509% growth.

Several of these fast-growing counties are in the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Valley, regions that historically weren’t considered wildfire hot spots. That shift suggests private insurers are reassessing risk across a broader geography than the traditional mountain and canyon areas.

FAIR Plan growth tells us where homeowners are ending up. The California Department of Insurance data shows where they're being pushed out.

In 2023, the CDI recorded 788,485 homeowners policy nonrenewals statewide. That total includes both insurer-initiated nonrenewals and policyholder-driven changes like switching carriers or selling a home. CDI estimates 20% to 25% were insurer-initiated. The raw count is down from a peak of 1,037,767 in 2021, but that decline is misleading: new policies written also dropped sharply, from 1,007,422 in 2020 to 724,037 in 2023, a 28% reduction. Fewer policies are being written in the first place, which reduces the pool of policies that can later show up as nonrenewals.

MoneyGeek’s county-level nonrenewal rate, calculated from CDI’s raw data, tells a clearer story. Tuolumne County had the highest rate in 2023 at 17.8%, meaning nearly one in five homeowners policies wasn’t renewed. Nevada County followed at 17.2%, then Lake County at 14.4%, Calaveras at 14.3% and Plumas at 14.3%. All five rank in the top 1% nationally for wildfire risk according to USDA data.

By volume, the biggest counties lead the totals. Los Angeles County saw 155,768 nonrenewals in 2023, more than any other county. Riverside followed with 74,877, San Diego with 62,683 and San Bernardino with 57,532. Those four counties alone accounted for 350,860 nonrenewals, 45% of the statewide total.

The most telling metric is where nonrenewals outnumbered new policies written, because that means the private market is actively contracting. In 2023, 46 of 58 California counties crossed that line. Only 12 counties wrote more new policies than they lost to nonrenewals.

According to the CDI’s January 2025 fact sheet, the nonrenewal rate in the 10 counties with the highest wildfire exposure hit 16.3% in 2023, nearly double the statewide average of 8.7% and up from roughly 5% in 2015.

The CDI also reported three tiers of FAIR Plan market penetration. Statewide, the FAIR Plan’s share of the total residential insurance market grew from 1.6% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2023. In counties at or above the 50th percentile for wildfire risk, FAIR Plan market share rose from 1.6% to 10% over that same period. And in the top 10 wildfire-risk counties, FAIR Plan policies reached 32.6% of the residential market by 2023, meaning roughly one in three policies in those areas is now written by the insurer of last resort.

While the largest raw numbers are in Southern California’s urban counties, the most concentrated risk is in California’s smaller, rural communities.

In Mariposa County, where 95% of buildings are directly exposed to wildfire, the FAIR Plan holds 3,404 policies. That county has a population of 17,060 and 16,578 total buildings. That works out to roughly one FAIR Plan policy for every five structures, though FAIR policies can include rentals, condos and seasonal properties, not just owner-occupied homes.

Tuolumne County has 83% of buildings in direct wildfire exposure zones and 14,071 residential FAIR Plan policies out of 44,249 total buildings, roughly one for every three structures. El Dorado County's 28,167 FAIR Plan policies represent about 28% of its 100,465 buildings.

For these communities, the insurance gap creates a compounding problem. Homeowners who can’t get affordable private coverage may struggle to sell their properties, potentially pressuring local property values, shrinking the tax base and reducing funding for the fire mitigation services needed to lower risk.

Zillow Home Value Index data adds a dollar figure to the crisis. The typical home in Los Angeles County is worth $879,000. In San Diego County, it’s $928,000. In Orange County, $1,170,000. For many households, these homes represent their largest financial asset, and they’re in counties where insurers are pulling back.

Across the 10 counties with the most FAIR Plan policies, the median typical home value is $661,000, per Zillow's February 2026 estimates. In the four counties FEMA rates as "Very High" for wildfire risk (Los Angeles, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino), the typical home value ranges from $547,000 (San Bernardino) to $928,000 (San Diego).

Some of California’s highest-risk, most insurance-stressed counties are also posting year-over-year home value declines, raising the question of whether insurance availability could become a housing-market headwind. Year-over-year price changes reflect many factors, including mortgage rates, local economic conditions and inventory mix, so the overlap alone doesn't prove causation. But for homeowners already paying more for less coverage, falling property values add another layer of financial pressure.

Private insurers have pulled back from California’s wildfire zones for reasons that show up in the loss data. FEMA estimates California’s expected annual wildfire loss at $1.79 billion, and that figure reflects modeled long-term averages, not worst-case scenarios.

The 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County killed 85 people and destroyed more than 18,000 structures. The 2020 and 2021 fire seasons burned through several Northern California communities. The January 2025 fires in Los Angeles County caused approximately $40 billion in insured losses, per Swiss Re and Munich Re reports published in early 2026, making them the costliest wildfire event in Swiss Re's sigma loss database.

For insurers, the math has shifted. The cost of covering wildfire-prone properties now exceeds what regulators have historically allowed companies to charge in premiums. California’s regulatory framework, which until recently required insurers to base rates on historical losses rather than forward-looking catastrophe models, prevented carriers from pricing for growing risk.

In September 2025, California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara finalized new rules allowing insurers to use catastrophe models in rate-setting, a change aimed at keeping private carriers in the market. But the FAIR Plan’s enrollment numbers suggest that, for now, the pullback continues.

The CDI county dataset does not break out nonrenewals by individual carrier, so this analysis cannot identify which specific insurers have pulled back most. NAIC company-level market-share data, which MoneyGeek plans to analyze in a follow-up report, would help answer that question.

Homeowners in counties identified in this analysis have increasingly limited options in the private insurance market. Several tools can help them assess their exposure and coverage status.

Risk assessment tools are publicly available. The USDA's Wildfire Risk to Communities tool provides risk scores for any U.S. address. FEMA's National Risk Index offers county-level risk ratings and expected loss estimates. MoneyGeek's California homeowners insurance calculator estimates premiums by area.

FAIR Plan coverage is narrower than most private policies. A standard FAIR Plan policy covers fire damage only and doesn't include theft, liability or water damage. Homeowners who need broader protection must buy a separate DIC policy from a private insurer at additional cost.

Nonrenewal exposure is a live concern for policyholders in high-risk counties. California's post-wildfire moratorium protections have prevented some nonrenewals, but those protections are temporary and apply only to specific disaster areas. Homeowners in affected counties should ask their agent whether their policy is at risk of nonrenewal at the next cycle.

Home hardening programs can affect both coverage availability and cost. California offers incentives for fire-resistant retrofits, including defensible space clearing, ember-resistant vents and fire-rated roofing. Some insurers offer discounts for homes meeting Firewise USA or similar standards. The California Department of Insurance lists mitigation programs online. MoneyGeek's home inventory guide walks homeowners through documenting property and improvements before a claim.

MoneyGeek merged six publicly available datasets to identify where high wildfire risk, insurer retreat and FAIR Plan enrollment overlap across California's 58 counties. MoneyGeek also analyzed ZIP-code-level FAIR Plan exposure data separately to identify communities with the highest concentrations of state-backed coverage. Because the six datasets cover different reporting periods, the analysis is cross-sectional rather than a single point-in-time snapshot.