Americans Are Moving Into Disaster Zones Even as Insurers Flee and Premiums Rise

The 100 counties growing fastest in post-pandemic America average $863 in annual disaster losses per resident, nearly triple the $296 average of the 100 slowest-growing counties. Americans aren't fleeing climate risk. They're moving toward it.

MoneyGeek's analysis of IRS migration data and FEMA's National Risk Index shows where that collision is happening: Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina account for 43 of the top 100 high-risk, fast-growth counties. Unlike classic climate migration, in which people flee environmental hazards, this analysis tracks the opposite pattern: in-migration into the nation's most disaster-exposed counties, driven by jobs, housing costs and lifestyle rather than climate alone. That choice brings higher insurance bills, weaker coverage and, in some markets, declining home values.

In Horry County, South Carolina, home to Myrtle Beach and sitting in the Atlantic hurricane corridor, residents are arriving at 7.8% annually. FEMA rates Horry's hurricane risk at 94.4 out of 100. Hurricane Florence struck the region in 2018 and caused $24 billion in total damage across affected states.

One hundred miles south, Brunswick County, North Carolina, is growing faster still, at 11.7% annually. That rate would quadruple its population in 12 years. The county carries $1,002 in annual disaster losses per resident and hurricane risk scores above 94 out of 100.

Two hundred miles south of that sits Collier County, Florida, the nation's top-ranked county in MoneyGeek's Climate Risk Migration Score. The Gulf Coast county gained residents at 4.5% annually post-pandemic, with $1,001 in annual disaster exposure per resident and hurricane, flood and wildfire risk scores above 93 out of 100. It's the county where migration pressure and disaster exposure intersect most intensely in the United States.

These three counties aren't outliers. They're the pattern.

MoneyGeek's Climate Risk Migration Score combines migration pressure, FEMA disaster exposure and financial loss into a single 0-to-100 index. The top 25 counties average 4.9% annual population growth and $1,004 in disaster losses per resident, 3.4 times the $296 average of the bottom 100 counties. Hurricane, wildfire and coastal flood risk scores are subscores derived from FEMA data, scaled 0 to 100.

Collier County, Florida, leads with a score of 95.1 out of 100. The county gained residents at 4.5% annually post-pandemic, with $1,001 in annual disaster losses per resident. FEMA rates Collier's hurricane risk at 95.8 out of 100, coastal flood risk at 93.4 and wildfire risk at 93.7, the last driven by Everglades fires during prolonged dry seasons. Hurricane Irma struck Collier County in 2017. Hurricane Ian made landfall 30 miles north in 2022, severely damaging Lee County and causing widespread damage in Collier.

Horry County, South Carolina, ranks second nationally, growing at 7.8% annually with $758 in annual disaster losses per resident and a 94.4 hurricane risk score. At that rate, Horry County's population would double in nine years. Net inflows surged 22% after 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels, even after Hurricane Florence's 2018 strike.

Bay County, Florida, holds third place after Hurricane Michael's catastrophic 2018 landfall. The Category 5 storm damaged tens of thousands of structures and caused $25 billion in total U.S. damage, according to the National Hurricane Center. Bay County saw net outflow in the immediate aftermath. By 2022, it had flipped to 5.0% annual growth, with $853 in annual disaster exposure per resident and a 96.3 hurricane risk score, the highest among Florida counties in the top 25. The rebound pattern, from outflow to faster-than-before growth within two years of a direct strike, appears in multiple high-risk counties across the dataset.

Eleven of the top 25 counties are in Florida, six are in North Carolina, three are in South Carolina and 22 of 25 carry hurricane risk scores above 85 out of 100.

Two Alaska boroughs appear in the top 25: Kenai Peninsula (#10) and Matanuska-Susitna (#15). Both rank here because of extreme wildfire exposure, not hurricanes. Kenai Peninsula Borough has a wildfire risk score of 93.9 out of 100 and $1,986 in annual disaster losses per resident, higher than most Florida hurricane counties. Alaska's wildfire season now runs weeks longer than historical norms, with fires burning in areas once too wet or cold to sustain large blazes. MoneyGeek's analysis of state-level natural disaster risk shows how wildfire, flood and hurricane exposure vary across every state. Disaster exposure driving migration risk isn't limited to coastal hurricane zones.

Migration into the nation's 100 most disaster-exposed counties grew at 3.7% annually post-2020, outpacing safer counties despite rising premiums and repeated storm strikes.

Buyers in high-risk markets often discover insurance costs after closing. Real estate listings rarely include premium estimates. Lenders approve mortgages without insurance cost analysis. First-year premiums in coastal markets are often artificially low, with sharper increases at the first renewal. MoneyGeek's analysis of states with the highest and lowest home insurance rates shows how wide that gap runs between initial premiums and renewal costs.

After major hurricanes, many residents view disaster risk as manageable or unlikely to repeat soon. Behavioral economics research shows people underweight low-probability, high-impact events when making housing decisions. Bay County, Florida, absorbed a direct Category 5 strike in 2018, briefly saw residents leave, then grew faster than before within two years as rebuilding stimulus, federal aid and lower post-disaster home prices pulled new buyers in.

Tax and lifestyle advantages compound. A single filer earning $150,000 who moves from California to Florida saves roughly $9,700 a year in state income taxes alone, based on 2025 tax brackets from the California Franchise Tax Board and the Tax Foundation. Warmer weather, beach access and lower living costs keep the package attractive despite rising disaster costs. The post-2020 expansion of remote work cut the link between job location and home location for millions of workers, making Sun Belt counties that were once impractical into viable options overnight.

Population growth and rising disaster costs are pushing insurance markets to reprice across high-risk regions. Florida shows the most advanced stage of that cycle.

Hurricane Ian's $112.9 billion in damage triggered a market crisis: multiple insurers were declared insolvent, Citizens Property Insurance enrollment surged and by mid-2023 Farmers had pulled its branded policies from the state. State Farm stayed but tightened underwriting in the most exposed coastal counties. As of 2025, private market conditions have improved and Citizens' policy count is declining from its 2023 peak. Citizens remains the state's insurer of last resort and still covers many homeowners who can't find private coverage in the open market. When private insurance isn't available, homeowners buy coverage through state-run FAIR plans or last-resort insurers. MoneyGeek's guide to high-risk homeowners insurance covers what to do when private coverage isn't an option.

Alaska property insurers have raised premiums sharply in wildfire-exposed boroughs, according to Alaska Division of Insurance data. Some carriers now require defensible space inspections in Kenai Peninsula Borough and Matanuska-Susitna Borough and won't cover structures that don't meet wildfire mitigation standards.

Homeowners insurance premiums are locked for one year. Buyers in high-risk markets discover the full cost at renewal, when rates and hurricane deductibles jump sharply after a major storm. The average cost of homeowners insurance in stable markets runs far below what coastal high-risk counties charge.

Insurance availability tightens after closing in many markets. Major carriers have pulled back from catastrophe-exposed markets. State-run FAIR plans and last-resort policies cost two to three times more than standard market rates and provide more limited coverage.

Premiums in catastrophe-exposed markets are volatile. In stable markets, premiums rise 3% to 5% a year. In high-risk coastal markets after a major storm, annual increases of 40% to 60% are common. The average cost of homeowners insurance in Florida reflects that volatility: it's among the highest in the nation and has climbed sharply since 2020. Some Florida coastal homeowners report premiums more than tripling within a few years.

Hurricane deductibles in high-risk coastal areas run 2% to 5% of dwelling coverage, meaning $10,000 to $37,500 or more out of pocket on a $500,000 to $750,000 home before coverage kicks in. Understanding what homeowners insurance covers for hurricane damage and what it excludes matters before buying in a coastal county. Standard homeowners policies in low-risk areas carry $500 to $1,000 deductibles.

Home values are falling in the most exposed markets. The National Bureau of Economic Research documented average home value drops of nearly $44,000 in the most disaster-exposed ZIP codes. Lee County median home values declined 12% from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, according to Zillow Research, erasing years of equity for buyers who purchased at peak prices while their insurance costs were rising.

The combination creates a financial trap. A $450,000 home purchased in a high-growth Florida coastal county in 2021 now faces triple the insurance costs within 24 months in some markets. A 12% home value drop turns that $450,000 purchase into a $395,000 asset. Refinancing or selling means realizing losses. Staying means absorbing thousands more in annual premiums.

MoneyGeek analyzed Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration data for 2016 to 2022, combined with FEMA National Risk Index data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates to create the Climate Risk Migration Score. Unlike traditional definitions of climate migration, which describe movement away from environmental hazards, the Climate Risk Migration Score tracks the opposite pattern: in-migration into disaster-exposed counties, where economic incentives and lifestyle draw residents into areas of higher risk. This analysis describes where risk and growth were most concentrated through 2022. It doesn't project patterns beyond that period.