Americans Are Moving Into Disaster Zones Even as Insurers Flee and Premiums Rise

The 100 counties growing fastest in post-pandemic America average $863 in modeled annual disaster losses per resident, nearly triple the $296 average of the 100 slowest-growing counties. Americans aren't fleeing climate risk. They're moving toward it.

MoneyGeek's analysis of IRS migration data and FEMA's National Risk Index shows where that collision is happening: Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina account for 43 of the top 100 high-risk, fast-growth counties. Unlike classic climate migration, in which people flee environmental hazards, this analysis tracks the opposite pattern: in-migration into the nation's most disaster-exposed counties, driven primarily by jobs, housing costs and lifestyle rather than climate alone. For buyers drawn by lower taxes or coastal amenities, that choice also means higher insurance bills, weaker coverage and, in some markets, declining home values.

The data build toward a clear peak. In Horry County, South Carolina, home to Myrtle Beach and sitting in the Atlantic hurricane corridor, residents are arriving at 7.8% annually, one of the fastest rates among high-risk counties in MoneyGeek's analysis. FEMA rates Horry's hurricane risk at 94.4 out of 100. Hurricane Florence struck the region in 2018 and contributed to $24 billion in total damage across affected states.

One hundred miles south, Brunswick County, North Carolina is growing faster still, at 11.7% annually. That rate would quadruple its population in about 12 years if the trend continues. The county carries $1,002 in expected annual disaster losses per resident and hurricane risk scores above 94 out of 100.

Two hundred miles south of that sits Collier County, Florida, the nation's top-ranked county in MoneyGeek's Climate Risk Migration Score. The Gulf Coast county gained residents at 4.5% annually post-pandemic, with $1,001 in annual disaster exposure per resident and near-maximum hurricane, flood and wildfire risk scores. It's the county where migration pressure and disaster exposure intersect most intensely in the United States.

These three counties aren't outliers. They're the pattern.

MoneyGeek's Climate Risk Migration Score combines migration pressure, FEMA disaster exposure and expected financial loss into a single 0-to-100 index. The top 25 counties average 4.9% annual population growth and about $1,004 in modeled disaster losses per resident, about 3.4 times the $296 average of the bottom 100 counties. Hurricane, wildfire and coastal flood risk scores are sub-scores derived from FEMA data, scaled 0 to 100.

Collier County, Florida leads with a score of 95.1 out of 100. The county gained residents at 4.5% annually post-pandemic, with $1,001 in expected annual disaster losses per resident. FEMA rates Collier's hurricane risk at 95.8 out of 100, coastal flood risk at 93.4 and wildfire risk at 93.7, the last driven by Everglades fires during prolonged dry seasons. Hurricane Irma struck Collier County in 2017. Hurricane Ian made landfall 30 miles north in 2022, severely damaging Lee County and causing widespread damage in Collier.

Horry County, South Carolina ranks second nationally, growing at 7.8% annually with $758 in expected annual disaster losses per resident and a 94.4 hurricane risk score. At that rate, Horry County's population would double in just over nine years. Net inflows surged 22% after 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels, even after Hurricane Florence's 2018 strike.

Bay County, Florida holds third place despite Hurricane Michael's catastrophic 2018 landfall. The Category 5 storm damaged tens of thousands of structures and caused $25 billion in total U.S. damage, according to the National Hurricane Center. Bay County saw net outflow in the immediate aftermath. By 2022, it had flipped to 5.0% annual growth, with $853 in annual disaster exposure per resident and a 96.3 hurricane risk rating, the highest among Florida counties in the top 25. The rebound pattern, from outflow to faster-than-before growth within two years of a direct strike, appears in multiple high-risk counties across the dataset.

Eleven of the top 25 counties are in Florida, six are in North Carolina, three are in South Carolina and 22 of 25 carry hurricane risk scores above 85 out of 100.

Two Alaska boroughs also appear: Kenai Peninsula (#10) and Matanuska-Susitna (#15). Both rank here because of extreme wildfire exposure, not hurricanes. Kenai Peninsula Borough has a wildfire risk score of 93.9 out of 100 and $1,986 in modeled annual disaster losses per resident, higher than most Florida hurricane counties. Alaska's wildfire season now runs weeks longer than historical norms, with fires burning in areas previously too wet or cold to sustain large blazes. MoneyGeek's analysis of state-level natural disaster risk shows how wildfire, flood and hurricane exposure vary across every state. Disaster exposure driving migration risk isn't limited to coastal hurricane zones.

Migration into the nation's 100 most disaster-exposed counties grew at 3.7% annually post-2020, outpacing safer counties despite rising premiums and repeated storm strikes. Five patterns explain why.

Most buyers don't see the real insurance costs until after closing. Real estate listings rarely include premium estimates. Lenders approve mortgages without insurance cost analysis. First-year premiums in high-risk coastal markets can be artificially low, and the full picture typically arrives at the first renewal. MoneyGeek's analysis of states with the highest and lowest home insurance rates shows how wide that gap can be between what buyers expect and what they pay at renewal.

Even after major hurricanes, many residents view disaster risk as manageable or unlikely to repeat soon. Behavioral economics research shows people consistently underweight low-probability, high-impact events when making housing decisions. The result is that a county like Bay County, Florida can absorb a direct Category 5 strike in 2018, briefly see residents leave, and then grow faster than before within two years, as rebuilding stimulus, federal aid and lower post-disaster home prices pull new buyers in.

Tax and lifestyle math pulls hard in the same direction. A single filer earning $150,000 who moves from California to Florida saves about $9,700 per year in state income taxes alone, based on 2025 tax brackets from the California Franchise Tax Board and the Tax Foundation. Add warmer weather, beach access and a lower cost of living, and the package stays attractive even as disaster costs climb. The post-2020 expansion of remote work cut the link between job location and home location for millions of workers, making Sun Belt counties that were previously impractical into viable options overnight.

Rising population and rising disaster costs are pushing insurance markets to reprice across high-risk regions. Florida shows the most advanced stage of that cycle.

Hurricane Ian's $112.9 billion in damage triggered a market crisis: multiple insurers were declared insolvent, Citizens Property Insurance enrollment surged and by mid-2023 Farmers had pulled its branded policies from the state. State Farm stayed but tightened underwriting in the most exposed coastal counties. As of 2025, private market conditions have improved somewhat and Citizens' policy count is declining from its 2023 peak. But it remains the state's insurer of last resort and still covers many homeowners who can't find private coverage in the open market. When private insurance isn't available, homeowners must buy coverage through state-run FAIR plans or last-resort insurers. MoneyGeek's guide to high-risk homeowners insurance covers what to do when private coverage isn't an option.

Alaska property insurers have also raised premiums sharply in wildfire-exposed boroughs in recent years, according to Alaska Division of Insurance data. Some carriers now require defensible space inspections in Kenai Peninsula Borough and Matanuska-Susitna Borough and won't cover structures that don't meet wildfire mitigation standards.

Homeowners insurance premiums are locked for one year. Buyers in high-risk markets often don't feel the full cost until renewal, when rates and hurricane deductibles can jump sharply after a major storm. The average cost of homeowners insurance in stable markets runs far below what coastal high-risk counties charge, making the gap especially jarring for buyers who relocate from low-risk areas.

Insurance availability may tighten after closing. Major carriers keep pulling back from catastrophe-exposed markets. Those policies typically cost two to three times more than standard market rates and provide more limited coverage.

Premiums in catastrophe-exposed markets are volatile. In stable markets, premiums usually rise 3% to 5% annually. In high-risk coastal markets after a major storm, annual increases of 40% to 60% have become common. The average cost of homeowners insurance in Florida reflects that volatility — it's among the highest in the nation and has climbed sharply since 2020. Some Florida coastal homeowners have seen premiums more than triple within a few years.

Hurricane deductibles in high-risk coastal areas now commonly run 2% to 5% of dwelling coverage, meaning $10,000 to $37,500 or more out of pocket on a $500,000 to $750,000 home before insurance pays anything. Understanding what homeowners insurance covers for hurricane damage and what it excludes matters before buying in a coastal county.Standard homeowners policies in low-risk areas carry $500 to $1,000 deductibles.

Home values are already falling in the most exposed markets. The National Bureau of Economic Research documented average home value drops of nearly $44,000 in the most disaster-exposed ZIP codes. Lee County median home values declined 12% from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, according to Zillow Research, erasing years of equity for buyers who purchased at peak prices while their insurance costs were rising.

The combination creates a financial trap. Buy a $450,000 home in a high-growth Florida coastal county in 2021 and some homeowners have seen insurance costs triple within 24 months. A 10% to 15% home value drop turns that $450,000 purchase into roughly a $395,000 asset. Refinancing or selling means realizing losses. Staying means absorbing thousands more in annual premiums. For many Florida families who relocated for jobs, retirement or lifestyle, reversing the decision is now financially painful.

MoneyGeek analyzed Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration data for 2016 to 2022, combining it with FEMA National Risk Index data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates to create the Climate Risk Migration Score. Unlike traditional definitions of climate migration, which describe movement away from environmental hazards, the Climate Risk Migration Score tracks the opposite pattern: in-migration into disaster-exposed counties, where economic incentives and lifestyle draw residents into areas of elevated risk. This analysis describes where risk and growth were most concentrated through 2022. It does not project patterns beyond that period.