Winter Heating Costs by State: Where Home Heating Will Cost More in 2025–2026

Home heating costs are expected to rise 7.6% this winter, with the average seasonal bill increasing from $907 to $976, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA). Homes heated with electricity see the biggest jump at about 10%, while natural gas costs shift unevenly across regions. Some Midwest households may pay up to $8 more each month, while many Southern homes may pay up to $5 less. This analysis maps winter heating costs by state and region to show where heating bills are rising the most in 2025–2026. MoneyGeek reviewed data from NEADA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to identify where winter heating budgets will stretch the most.

Midwestern and Northeastern states remain among the most expensive places to heat a home because of colder winters, older housing and higher baseline natural gas and electricity costs. Southern and Western states benefit from milder winters and lower natural gas use, which keeps average winter heating bills lower even when electricity prices rise. States in the Midwest and Northeast dominate the upper end of winter heating costs, while many Southern and Western states cluster near the bottom of the cost range.

While natural gas bill changes vary by state, total winter heating costs also differ by region and by the fuels homes rely on. The South, West and Midwest see double-digit growth in winter heating expenditures, driven largely by higher electricity prices. The Northeast faces smaller percentage increases but remains one of the most expensive regions to heat a home because of colder winters and older buildings.

Natural gas heating costs follow a different pattern from electricity, with the sharpest bill increases concentrated in the Midwest. All 12 Midwest states see monthly natural gas bills rise by $3 to $8, while most Southern and Western states see flat or slightly lower bills. Northeast states remain roughly stable when rounded to whole dollars, but several still have some of the highest baseline natural gas costs.

MoneyGeek applied regional growth rates from EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook to last winter’s MoneyGeek state-level natural gas bill estimates to calculate 2025–2026 monthly costs

States with $0 change have cost differences of less than $0.50 per month when rounded to whole dollars.

Natural gas is the primary heating fuel in 47% of U.S. homes, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, while electricity heats another 41% of homes, mainly in the South and West. Your winter heating bill depends not just on how cold it gets but also on whether your home runs on natural gas, electricity, heating oil or propane, and on how energy prices move in your region.

Electricity costs have risen steadily for several years, with average monthly residential bills climbing from $121 in 2021 to $156 in 2025, a 28.9% increase. Even after adjusting for inflation, many households pay more for electricity than they did a few years ago.

Lower-income and moderate-income families feel this strain most because they already spend a large share of income on energy. Higher prices make it harder to manage core expenses like rent, food and medical bills.

What’s Pushing Electricity Prices Higher

Higher interest rates, natural gas prices and aging power infrastructure all push electricity rates upward. New power plants and grid upgrades cost more to finance, and the expiration of several federal incentives has slowed some renewable‑energy investment.

Data centers and industrial users add demand and strain the grid in regions with limited capacity, contributing to higher prices for households. Several states saw sharp electricity price increases in early 2025, including 37.4% in Missouri, 30.3% in North Dakota, 29.8% in Iowa and 29.9% in Oklahoma.

Energy Debt and Shutoffs

Rising winter heating costs land on top of growing household energy debt, with total arrearages increasing from $17.5 billion in late 2023 to $23 billion by mid‑2025. About 21 million households are behind on energy bills, and NEADA expects four million disconnections this year.

When bills become unaffordable, some families turn to portable space heaters, fireplaces or ovens for warmth. These alternatives raise the risk of fires and carbon‑monoxide exposure, especially in older or crowded homes.

Heating equipment is a major source of winter home fires, and space heaters and heating stoves account for a large share of heating‑related fires and deaths, which can make some properties feel more like high‑risk homes. As more households lean on space heaters due to rising costs or interrupted service, winter fire risk increases in homes with aging wiring or poor ventilation.

Homeowners insurance coverage can be affected when damage stems from unsafe heating equipment or lack of maintenance. Some policies exclude losses if a home is not kept above a minimum temperature or if equipment is used improperly, so knowing how much home insurance you need becomes more important in colder months. Reviewing coverage details, maintaining heating systems and comparing homeowners insurance options can help prevent these issues.

MoneyGeek used NEADA’s 2025–2026 Winter Price Outlook and November 2025 Energy Price Update to assess national and regional winter heating costs. For natural gas, regional percentage changes from EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook were applied to baseline 2024–2025 state-level natural gas heating bills to estimate 2025–2026 monthly costs. Electricity and arrearage data come from NEADA’s Energy Price Update and Energy Affordability Project, with additional context from the American Gas Association and EIA consumption and pricing data.