The Catalytic Converter Cycle: How Theft Collapsed 83%, Then Prices Doubled and It Came Back

When thieves stole the catalytic converter from my 2014 Toyota Prius in Brooklyn last December, I assumed I was catching the tail end of a crime wave. State Farm's data showed catalytic converter theft had fallen 83% from its 2022 peak. Federal prosecutors had dismantled the largest theft rings. Rhodium prices had fallen 77% from their 2021 highs.

But when I started reporting this story, I found something more interesting than a solved problem: I found a cycle that's already repeating.

Rhodium didn't stay at $4,600 per ounce. It more than doubled to $10,400 by early 2026. And in St. Paul, Minnesota, a city with one of the nation's strictest anti-theft laws still fully in force, catalytic converter theft nearly tripled in 2025, rising from 172 incidents to 504.

The story of catalytic converter theft isn't about how three forces killed an epidemic. It's about how precious metal prices drive a predictable cycle that legislation can moderate but never eliminate. And it explains why comprehensive insurance premiums won't drop proportionally to reflect the 2022-2024 decline: insurers are already pricing in the next surge, which early 2026 data suggests has begun.

State Farm paid out $115.4 million for 45,000 catalytic converter theft claims in 2022. By 2024, the insurer projected paying just $22 million for roughly 7,600 claims, 81% fewer dollars despite repair costs per incident rising 53%. The decline was real, dramatic and national in scope.

But the forces that caused it were always temporary. And understanding why reveals how a crime that seemed to disappear is already coming back.

State Farm is one of the nation's largest auto insurers and provides one of the only consistent multi-year tracking sources for catalytic converter theft available publicly. The company's data shows the complete arc of the increase and decline:

*2024 figures are annualized estimates based on H1 2024 actual data.

Three separate forces converged between 2022 and 2024, each documented through federal data, state legislation and law enforcement records. While correlation doesn't prove causation, the timing patterns strongly suggest these factors interacted to end the crime wave. But as 2025-2026 would prove, they didn't end the cycle.

Catalytic converters contain rhodium, a rare platinum-group metal worth $10,400 per ounce as of February 2026. Rhodium reduces vehicle emissions in catalytic converters, and a single Toyota Prius converter can contain several thousand dollars worth of the metal. Thieves remove converters in 90 seconds with battery-powered saws.

The U.S. Geological Survey tracks annual average prices for platinum-group metals. Rhodium peaked at $20,254 per ounce in 2021 as State Farm's theft claims accelerated, then fell 77% to $4,600 by 2024. Palladium, another primary converter metal, fell nearly 60% over the same period.

State Farm's theft claims reached their highest level in 2022, 1 year after rhodium prices peaked, suggesting a lag between metal price changes and criminal response. Once rhodium prices began sustained decline in 2022 to 2023, State Farm's claims fell in parallel. But this floor wouldn't hold. By late 2025, rhodium had more than doubled back to $10,400. Theft followed.

While theft dropped, repair costs didn't. State Farm's average claim payment rose 53% from $1,900 in 2019 to $2,900 by 2024. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair shows repair shops raised labor rates and parts costs more than 30% from 2019 to 2024, capturing savings from reduced component theft rather than passing them to customers.

But rhodium prices climbing back above $8,000 per ounce made theft economically rational again. And thieves responded.

Between 2021 and 2024, 31 states passed laws specifically targeting catalytic converter theft. Most require scrap dealers to maintain electronic records of all converter purchases, including seller identification and vehicle VINs. Several states require etching VINs onto converters or marking them with high-heat paint.

New York's law, effective March 2023, requires scrap dealers to photograph sellers and converters, maintain transaction records for 5 years and verify that sellers are the registered vehicle owners. California's 2021 law restricts who can sell converters and requires dealers to keep seller documentation.

These laws appeared effective. New York City saw thefts fall 80% from 2022 to 2024, according to Gothamist. But St. Paul's 2025 increase showed these laws set a floor, not a ceiling. When rhodium more than doubled, theft rose 193% despite Minnesota's strict 2023 law remaining fully in force.

In November 2022, the Department of Justice announced the largest catalytic converter theft ring prosecution in U.S. history. The ring operated across nine states and involved $545 million in stolen converters. Twenty-one people were charged.

Federal prosecutors identified the key vulnerability: large-scale operations require coordination between street-level thieves, middlemen and metal refineries. Breaking any link in this chain disrupts the market. The November 2022 prosecution targeted DG Auto, a New Jersey company that allegedly purchased stolen converters from thieves nationwide and resold them to refineries.

State Farm's 2023 claims data, released in October 2023, showed a 53% year-over-year decline. The timing suggests federal enforcement contributed to the decline. But criminal networks reconstitute when profit margins return, as the 2025-2026 resurgence demonstrates.

Catalytic converter theft follows predictable patterns based on vehicle ground clearance, converter metal content and resale value. According to Carfax and insurance claim data, three vehicle categories account for the majority of thefts:

Hybrid vehicles, particularly the Toyota Prius, remain prime targets. Hybrids use less gasoline, which means their catalytic converters degrade more slowly and retain higher precious metal content. A Prius converter can contain several thousand dollars in rhodium.

Pickup trucks with high ground clearance, particularly the Ford F-150 and F-250, allow thieves easy access without jacking up the vehicle. Trucks also use larger converters with higher metal content.

Mid-size sedans, especially the Honda Accord, combine moderate ground clearance with high-value converters. Honda vehicles consistently rank among the most-stolen for converters.

The rhodium price collapse that correlates so closely with falling theft didn't last. By late 2025, all three platinum-group metals staged dramatic recoveries driven by South African supply deficits, slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption sustaining catalytic converter demand, and new Chinese futures trading that increased speculative buying.

Platinum hit an all-time record high of $2,475 per ounce in December 2025, its biggest annual gain since Bloomberg began tracking the metal in 1987. Rhodium's above-ground stocks fell to roughly 349,000 ounces, representing just four months of global demand. Industry analysts project continued supply deficits through 2026, with South African mine output down 6% year-over-year.

The economics that killed catalytic converter theft had reversed. And theft followed.

St. Paul, Minnesota provides the clearest signal. Despite Minnesota's strict 2023 law requiring VIN marking on all catalytic converters and electronic record-keeping by scrap dealers, reported thefts jumped from 172 in 2024 to 504 in 2025, a 193% increase. Deputy Police Chief Kurt Hallstrom told local media: "These crimes can be cyclical, depending upon the economy... The laws are only as good as what people will follow and what we have the capacity to investigate."

Berkeley, California recorded nine catalytic converter thefts in the first week of January 2026 alone, including one armed robbery during a converter theft. The city had seen thefts fall from 847 in 2022 to roughly 250 for all of 2025. Police Captain Andrew Greenwood noted the sudden uptick coincided with "recent increases in precious metal prices."

The pattern extends internationally. In the United Kingdom, BM Catalysts, a major aftermarket converter supplier, reported renewed theft increases in late 2025, stating directly that "as PGM prices increase, so too does criminal activity." Troy, Michigan and Harris County, Texas both issued police warnings about rising converter thefts in January 2026.

No national statistics for late 2025 or early 2026 have been published yet by the National Insurance Crime Bureau or State Farm. But the localized data from jurisdictions that track theft closely shows a consistent pattern: where prices go, theft follows, typically with a 6-to-12-month lag as criminal networks respond to incentive changes.

Two peer-reviewed studies published in 2024-2025 quantify exactly how theft responds to price changes, and both predicted the pattern now emerging.

University of Wisconsin researchers Stickle, Rennhoff, Morris and Fritts analyzed 42 months of police reports from eight California cities and calculated a price elasticity of 1.98 for catalytic converter theft. In economic terms, that means a 10% increase in precious metal prices produces roughly a 20% increase in thefts. Their field interviews with active thieves confirmed that criminal networks "kick into overdrive" when scrap values climb.

A December 2025 study by London School of Economics and Singapore Management University researchers analyzed nine years of FBI crime data and calculated elasticities from 0.45 to 0.89. The study modeled both price effects and policy responses, finding that price increases drove rapid theft increases while price declines and policy interventions quickly reversed the pattern.

Apply these elasticities to the 126% rhodium price increase from 2024 to early 2026, and the academic models predict theft increases ranging from 57% to 249% depending on which estimate you use and how quickly criminal networks reconstitute. St. Paul's 193% increase falls squarely in the middle of that predicted range.

The research reveals what intuition suggests: when a single Toyota Prius catalytic converter contains several thousand dollars worth of rhodium that can be removed in 90 seconds with a battery-powered saw, criminal incentives overwhelm legislative deterrence. Laws change the amplitude. They explain why St. Paul's 504 thefts in 2025 remain 80% below its 2,439 peak in 2022 despite rhodium more than doubling. But laws can't override the fundamental economics.

The 2025-2026 price rebound provides something more valuable than the original 2022-2024 decline: a natural experiment that tests competing explanations for why theft fell.

If state legislation was the primary driver of falling theft, St. Paul's numbers make no sense. Minnesota's 2023 law remains fully in force. Scrap dealers still face the same record-keeping requirements. VIN marking programs haven't changed. Yet theft nearly tripled as soon as rhodium prices climbed back above $8,000 per ounce.

If federal enforcement was the primary driver, the nationwide pattern doesn't fit. The Department of Justice's November 2022 dismantling of the largest theft ring remains the biggest prosecution in this space. No comparable networks have been publicly broken up since. The enforcement environment in 2025 is arguably stronger than 2024, yet theft is rising in multiple jurisdictions simultaneously.

The pattern that does fit is price-driven theft with legislation and enforcement setting the floor. When rhodium fell from $20,254 to $4,600, criminal incentives dropped and theft followed. When rhodium climbed back above $10,000, incentives returned and theft followed again, but to levels moderated by the 31 states that passed anti-theft legislation between 2021 and 2024.

This isn't the narrative of a solved problem. It's the first complete cycle of a predictable pattern, and early 2026 data suggests the second increase has already begun.

Despite catalytic converter theft falling 83% from 2022 to 2024, most drivers didn't see proportional premium reductions. State Farm's data shows the insurer paid out 81% less for converter theft in 2024 compared to 2022, yet comprehensive insurance premiums nationally have remained elevated. Three factors explain why, and a fourth has emerged from the 2025-2026 rebound.

The timing window for preventive action may be closing. Early 2026 data from St. Paul, Berkeley and international markets suggests theft is resurging as rhodium prices climb. Vehicle owners with high-risk cars, particularly Toyota Prius, Honda Accord and Ford F-150/F-250 trucks, should act now before converter shields become scarce and insurance rates adjust upward.

The 1,700% increase in catalytic converter theft from 2019 to 2022 wasn't a one-time epidemic solved by legislation and enforcement. It was the first cycle in a predictable pattern driven by volatile precious metal prices that academic research now quantifies with remarkable precision.

The 2022-2024 decline taught us that rhodium prices drive theft rates. The 2025-2026 rebound confirmed it. When rhodium fell 77% from its 2021 peak, theft followed, dropping 83% nationally despite repair costs rising 53%. When rhodium more than doubled back to $10,400 per ounce, theft increased again in St. Paul by 193% despite Minnesota's strict anti-theft law remaining fully in force.

State legislation matters. The 31 states that passed converter-specific theft laws between 2021 and 2024 created real friction in resale markets. Electronic record-keeping requirements, VIN marking programs and enhanced criminal penalties explain why St. Paul's 504 thefts in 2025 remain 80% below its 2,439 peak in 2022 despite prices doubling. Laws raise the floor. But they can't override the fundamental economics.

When a single catalytic converter contains thousands of dollars in rhodium that can be removed in 90 seconds with a battery-powered saw, criminal incentives eventually overwhelm legislative deterrence. Federal enforcement dismantled the largest theft rings in late 2022, but networks reconstitute when profit margins return. Comprehensive insurance premiums reflect this cyclical reality: actuaries price not for where theft is now, but for where commodity markets and elasticity research predict it's headed.

For vehicle owners, the lesson is timing. The 2024 low-theft window was the moment to install converter shields, lock in favorable insurance rates and prepare for the next increase. Early 2026 data from St. Paul, Berkeley and the UK suggests that window is closing. And if rhodium stays above $8,000 per ounce through 2026, which supply deficit forecasts and hybrid vehicle demand trends strongly suggest, we're not heading into the next cycle. We're already in it.

This analysis relies on multiple data sources to establish the correlation between precious metal prices and catalytic converter theft rates. State Farm's publicly released claims data provides the most consistent multi-year theft tracking available from any U.S. insurer.