States With the Most (And Least) Climate Risk Today
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When it comes to climate change, one significant issue homeowners face is the risk of natural disasters. While hazards vary based on location, some states are more likely to be impacted by these destructive events than others.
MoneyGeek analyzed Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) data on climate risk to illustrate the current climate risks that homeowners face and determine the states most and least impacted by natural disasters today.
Key Findings:
- California has the largest annual natural disaster risk, with annual expected losses of $6.8 billion. Populous states Texas and Florida had the second and third-highest annualized risk, respectively.
- South Dakota has the highest per capita risk, with an annual expected loss of $271 per person. Comparably, the lowest risk per capita state — Rhode Island — has annualized expected losses of $15 per person.
- Louisiana has the fourth-highest annualized risk despite having the 25th largest population, driven by significant hurricane risk.
- Earthquakes pose the most annualized natural disaster risk in the United States. Despite lower frequency than tornadoes and hurricanes, their potential for damage is significantly higher.
The States With the Highest & Lowest Annualized Climate Risk
It’s crucial that homeowners understand the climate risks that pose a threat to their area. These risks can impact personal finances, insurance coverage and emergency preparedness plans.
To find the states with the most and least climate risk, MoneyGeek analyzed natural disaster data gathered by FEMA. We assessed annual expected losses, expected loss per capita and the greatest potential hazards in each state.
States With the Highest Climate Risk
Known for earthquakes — and more recently, wildfires — California has the most climate risk of any state. California's expected annual loss per capita is $183, but the state’s expected annual losses are $6.8 billion. Trailing after are Texas and Florida, both with hurricanes as their most significant climate risk.
- 1. California
Downtown Los Angeles, California.
- EarthquakeGreatest Potential Hazard
- $6,820Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $183Expected Loss Per Capita
- 2. Texas
Downtown Austin, Texas.
- HurricaneGreatest Potential Hazard
- $4,615Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $184Expected Loss Per Capita
- 3. Florida
Miami seaside, Florida
- HurricaneGreatest Potential Hazard
- $1,692Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $90Expected Loss Per Capita
- 4. Louisiana
Downtown New Orleans, Louisiana.
- HurricaneGreatest Potential Hazard
- $1,128Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $249Expected Loss Per Capita
- 5. North Carolina
Downtown Charlotte, North Carolina.
- HurricaneGreatest Potential Hazard
- $1,024Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $107Expected Loss Per Capita
- 6. Washington
Downtown Seattle, Washington.
- EarthquakeGreatest Potential Hazard
- $1,012Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $151Expected Loss Per Capita
- 7. Missouri
Downtown Kansas City, Missouri.
- Heat WaveGreatest Potential Hazard
- $870Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $145Expected Loss Per Capita
- 8. New Jersey
Jersey City, New Jersey.
- Coastal FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $851Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $97Expected Loss Per Capita
- 9. Illinois
Downtown Chicago, Illinois.
- TornadoGreatest Potential Hazard
- $850Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $66Expected Loss Per Capita
- 10. Tennessee
Downtown Nashville, Tennessee.
- TornadoGreatest Potential Hazard
- $787Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $124Expected Loss Per Capita
- 11. Oklahoma
Downtown Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
- TornadoGreatest Potential Hazard
- $634Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $169Expected Loss Per Capita
- 12. Georgia
Downtown Atlanta, Georgia
- TornadoGreatest Potential Hazard
- $625Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $64Expected Loss Per Capita
- 13. Iowa
Downtown Des Moines, Iowa.
- DroughtGreatest Potential Hazard
- $623Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $205Expected Loss Per Capita
- 14. Mississippi
Downtown Jackson, Mississippi.
- HurricaneGreatest Potential Hazard
- $596Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $201Expected Loss Per Capita
- 15. Oregon
Downtown Portland, Oregon.
- EarthquakeGreatest Potential Hazard
- $591Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $154Expected Loss Per Capita
States With the Lowest Climate Risk
Rhode Island is at the top of the list of states with low climate risk, with $16 million in total expected losses and $15 lost per capita. Next on the list is Washington, D.C., where strong winds are expected to cause $28 in losses to each resident and $17 million to the state. In third place is Vermont, whose riverine floodings are expected to result in $40 in annual losses per person and $25 million for the state.
- 1. Rhode Island
Downtown Providence, Rhode Island.
- Riverine FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $16Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $15Expected Loss per Capita
- 2. District of Columbia
U.S. Capitol, Washington, D.C.
- Strong WindGreatest Potential Hazard
- $17Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $28Expected Loss per Capita
- 3. Vermont
Downtown Montpelier, Vermont.
- Riverine FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $25Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $40Expected Loss per Capita
- 4. Delaware
Downtown Wilmington, Delaware.
- Coastal FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $34Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $37Expected Loss per Capita
- 5. New Hampshire
Downtown Manchester, New Hampshire.
- Riverine FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $42Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $32Expected Loss per Capita
- 6. Maine
Downtown Portland, Maine.
- DroughtGreatest Potential Hazard
- $54Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $41Expected Loss per Capita
- 7. Connecticut
Downtown Hartford, Connecticut.
- TornadoGreatest Potential Hazard
- $59Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $16Expected Loss per Capita
- 8. Wyoming
Downtown Cheyenne, Wyoming.
- AvalancheGreatest Potential Hazard
- $64Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $114Expected Loss per Capita
- 9. Montana
Downtown Missoula, Montana.
- EarthquakeGreatest Potential Hazard
- $89Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $90Expected Loss per Capita
- 10. West Virginia
Downtown Charleston, West Virginia.
- Riverine FloodingGreatest Potential Hazard
- $100Annual Expected Losses (Millions)
- $54Expected Loss per Capita
Risk by Type of Hazard
MoneyGeek found that earthquakes, tornadoes and riverine flooding are the top three climate risks in the United States. California and Texas have the greatest overall risk of these hazards. However, Alaska (earthquakes), South Dakota (tornadoes) and Louisiana (riverine flooding) have more risk per capita.
The following definitions are key to understanding the risks that each type of weather emergency represents:
- State With Greatest Risk Overall: These are the states with the largest total expected losses due to each type of hazard.
- State With Greatest Risk Per Capita: Based on population size and greatest potential hazards, these are the states with the largest risk per person.
- # of States Greatest Risk: The number of states where this hazard is the greatest risk.
- % of National Risk: Each hazard’s expected national losses as a percentage of total expected losses.
Climate Risk by Hazard
Hazard | State With
Greatest Risk
Overall | State With
Greatest Risk
Per Capita | # of
States'
Greatest
Risk | % of
National
Risk |
---|---|---|---|---|
Earthquake | California | Alaska | 9 | 22.3% |
Tornado | Texas | South Dakota | 14 | 15.7% |
Riverine Flooding | Texas | Louisiana | 7 | 14.6% |
Hurricane | Texas | Louisiana | 5 | 11.3% |
Drought | California | Kansas | 7 | 10.2% |
Wildfire | California | Idaho | 1 | 4.9% |
Strong Wind | Minnesota | Iowa | 2 | 4.0% |
Hail | Texas | Nebraska | 1 | 3.9% |
Coastal Flooding | New Jersey | New Jersey | 2 | 3.8% |
Heat Wave | Missouri | Missouri | 1 | 2.7% |
Lightning | Florida | Florida | 0 | 1.5% |
Ice Storm | Oklahoma | North Dakota | 0 | 1.4% |
Cold Wave | South Dakota | South Dakota | 1 | 1.3% |
Winter Weather | Texas | North Dakota | 0 | 0.9% |
Landslide | Oregon | Oregon | 0 | 0.8% |
Volcanic Activity | Washington | Washington | 0 | 0.4% |
Avalanche | Colorado | Wyoming | 1 | 0.2% |
Tsunami | Hawaii | Hawaii | 0 | 0.0% |
How Homeowners Can Prepare for Climate Risk
As homeowners learn more about climate risks in their area, it’s important that they take steps to prepare for the possibility of natural disasters.
The Federal Trade Commission recommends that residents take the following steps to prepare for climate risk:
- Become familiar with your homeowner’s insurance coverage.
- Get coverage in case of hazards, floods or earthquakes.
- Take inventory of your assets.
- Weatherproof your property.
- Sign up for local alerts and weather warnings.
- Work on your financial preparedness.
- Keep an electronic and hard copy of FEMA’s Emergency Financial First Aid Kit.
- Create a family safety plan.
Homes that are considered high-risk can be more difficult to insure in the voluntary insurance market. With the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plan, people who live in the worst states for climate change can get affordable coverage through their state administrators. While these plans may be more expensive than private insurance, they limit homeowners' liability and offer coverage that wouldn’t otherwise be available.
Homeowners who aren’t sure if they have adequate coverage can also use Ready.gov’s Insurance Coverage Discussion Form to work with their agents to protect their homes from climate risk.
Renters who want to protect their personal belongings can also benefit from renters insurance. Purchasing this coverage can mitigate possible losses in the states with the worst climate change risk.
Expert Insights
Lack of information and extreme weather can have a negative impact on people who live in the worst states for natural disasters. MoneyGeek interviewed a panel of climate risk experts to help homeowners and renters learn more about potential risks and safeguard their assets and families.
- What do you think are some of the biggest natural hazards that affect our country today?
- Based on your studies, how do you expect climate risks to change in the future? What could the population expect and how do you think they could prepare for such changes?
- What are steps that readers can take to mitigate climate risk in their area?
- What resources would you recommend for individuals who live in states with high climate risk?
- If someone were considering a move, what type of data should they look for to choose an area with the lowest climate risk?
- How does climate risk affect homeownership?

Professor & Chairperson of Michigan State University's Department of Sociology

Professor & Director of Graduate Studies for UNC's Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering

Associate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Full Data Set
MoneyGeek's full data set provides a high-level understanding of the study results. Its state-by-state analysis paints a picture of the country’s overall climate risk. It also offers perspective on the states with the highest and lowest risk of natural disasters.
The table below uses the following terminology to evaluate climate risk across the country:
- Expected Loss per Capita: Total expected losses per person based on population size and greatest potential hazards.
- Annual Expected Losses: A forecast of how much natural disasters will cost each state in one year.
- Greatest Potential Hazard: The hazards that represent the largest expected loss for each state.
- % Building Losses: The percentage of the Annual Expected Losses associated with building damage and destruction.
- % Life Lost: The percentage of the Annual Expected Losses associated with injury and loss of life, using a FEMA-determined value of statistical life of $7.4 million.
- % Agricultural: The percentage of the Annual Expected Losses associated with loss of agricultural production.
State | Expected Loss per Capita | Annual
Expected Losses
(Millions) | Greatest Potential Hazard | % Building Losses | % Life Lost | % Agricultural |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California | $183.07 | $6,820 | Earthquake | 67% | 13% | 19% |
Texas | $183.53 | $4,615 | Hurricane | 68% | 25% | 7% |
Florida | $90.00 | $1,692 | Hurricane | 65% | 27% | 8% |
Louisiana | $248.78 | $1,128 | Hurricane | 67% | 30% | 3% |
North Carolina | $107.39 | $1,024 | Hurricane | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Washington | $150.54 | $1,012 | Earthquake | 64% | 34% | 1% |
Missouri | $145.29 | $870 | Heat Wave | 35% | 57% | 8% |
New Jersey | $96.84 | $851 | Coastal Flooding | 82% | 17% | 1% |
Illinois | $66.26 | $850 | Tornado | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Tennessee | $123.97 | $787 | Tornado | 58% | 39% | 2% |
Oklahoma | $168.95 | $634 | Tornado | 44% | 42% | 15% |
Georgia | $64.50 | $625 | Tornado | 47% | 40% | 12% |
Iowa | $204.67 | $623 | Drought | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Mississippi | $200.85 | $596 | Hurricane | 61% | 32% | 7% |
Oregon | $154.29 | $591 | Earthquake | 63% | 36% | 1% |
Kansas | $201.15 | $574 | Drought | 26% | 35% | 39% |
Alabama | $114.43 | $547 | Tornado | 52% | 39% | 10% |
Arkansas | $179.20 | $523 | Tornado | 36% | 46% | 18% |
Minnesota | $95.84 | $508 | Drought | 44% | 25% | 31% |
New York | $25.15 | $487 | Riverine Flooding | 50% | 46% | 4% |
Colorado | $96.53 | $485 | Hail | 70% | 25% | 5% |
Kentucky | $111.74 | $485 | Tornado | 41% | 54% | 6% |
Indiana | $71.01 | $460 | Tornado | 42% | 44% | 13% |
South Carolina | $98.01 | $453 | Earthquake | 53% | 40% | 7% |
Ohio | $38.79 | $448 | Tornado | 61% | 35% | 4% |
Nebraska | $242.24 | $442 | Tornado | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Pennsylvania | $32.49 | $413 | Riverine Flooding | 45% | 46% | 10% |
Michigan | $36.94 | $365 | Strong Wind | 60% | 37% | 3% |
Nevada | $128.41 | $347 | Earthquake | 53% | 14% | 33% |
Virginia | $39.94 | $320 | Tornado | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Arizona | $47.29 | $302 | Wildfire | 49% | 18% | 33% |
Utah | $107.21 | $296 | Earthquake | 68% | 30% | 2% |
Wisconsin | $46.88 | $267 | Tornado | 45% | 45% | 10% |
South Dakota | $271.72 | $221 | Tornado | 27% | 50% | 23% |
Maryland | $38.31 | $221 | Drought | 43% | 33% | 24% |
New Mexico | $79.90 | $165 | Drought | 39% | 31% | 30% |
Hawaii | $117.16 | $159 | Earthquake | 76% | 23% | 0% |
Idaho | $94.31 | $148 | Drought | 34% | 23% | 43% |
North Dakota | $209.17 | $141 | Cold Wave | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Alaska | $188.54 | $134 | Earthquake | 75% | 25% | 0% |
Massachusetts | $19.28 | $126 | Riverine Flooding | 50% | 40% | 10% |
West Virginia | $53.90 | $100 | Riverine Flooding | 52% | 47% | 1% |
Montana | $89.82 | $89 | Earthquake | 37% | 42% | 21% |
Wyoming | $114.25 | $64 | Avalanche | 30% | 55% | 15% |
Connecticut | $16.45 | $59 | Tornado | 47% | 34% | 19% |
Maine | $41.00 | $54 | Drought | 47% | 24% | 29% |
New Hampshire | $31.63 | $42 | Riverine Flooding | 53% | 42% | 4% |
Delaware | $37.31 | $34 | Coastal Flooding | 56% | 36% | 8% |
Vermont | $39.53 | $25 | Riverine Flooding | 72% | 24% | 4% |
District of Columbia | $28.24 | $17 | Strong Wind | 49% | 51% | 0% |
Rhode Island | $14.75 | $16 | Riverine Flooding | 67% | 31% | 1% |
Methodology
MoneyGeek utilized data from FEMA’s National Risk Index datasets to calculate and compare the annual expected losses for each state. To calculate per capita risk, MoneyGeek utilized the population as of 2016.
About Lucia Caldera

sources
- FEMA. "National Risk Index." Accessed October 31, 2021.
- Federal Trade Commission Consumer Information. "Dealing with Weather Emergencies." Accessed December 3, 2021.
- FEMA. "Emergency Financial First Aid Kit (EFFAK)." Accessed December 3, 2021.
- Insurance Information Institute. "What if I can’t get coverage?." Accessed December 8, 2021.
- Ready. "Insurance Coverage Discussion Form." Accessed December 8, 2021.