Will This Be the Year Consumers Cancel Turkey?

Rising inflation will hit home this November as consumers shop for their Thanksgiving turkeys. MoneyGeek analyzed the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner across 122 metro areas — comparing 2022 prices at various national supermarkets to last year’s prices for holiday staples such as turkey, pumpkin pie and cranberry sauce — to find the most expensive metros for Thanksgiving dinner. In some metro areas, an entire Thanksgiving spread for six people could cost as much as $170. Here’s what else we found.

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MoneyGeek looked at the cost of Thanksgiving turkeys and prices for various side dishes, including mashed potatoes, stuffing, bread rolls, peas and corn, and refreshments for a party of six. Our analysis includes metro areas with a population of 250,000 people or more. To obtain our food price estimates, MoneyGeek used 2022 data from the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER) and Instacart prices. Gathering prices from some of America’s largest supermarket chains, we removed the average 15% markup from Instacart to get a more accurate sense of in-store costs.

We found that, overall, Thanksgiving will be significantly more expensive this year than it was last. Side dishes will be around 5% more costly nationwide; during the week of Thanksgiving, turkeys are excepted to be 50% more expensive this year than they were last.

Inflation appears to be hitting the turkey dinner hard in some northeastern metro areas. In Boston, consumers will pay as much as $170 for a 10-pound fresh gobbler, side dishes and refreshments, including beer and wine. New York and Washington, D.C., are also in the top five most expensive metro areas for Thanksgiving dinners.

For those headed over the river and through the woods to Kalamazoo, Michigan, a full Thanksgiving meal for six will be a more reasonable $88. Texas boasts three of the least expensive metro areas for Thanksgiving, with the Waco area right behind Kalamazoo at $93 for the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner.

While the overall cost of Thanksgiving dinner in many places will come with no small amount of sticker shock, the bird itself will also be more expensive. As of the beginning of October, a fresh 10-lb. turkey cost, on average, $19. But that price has risen and will continue to rise throughout the next few weeks. During Thanksgiving week, prices will jump as much as 19% more. This means that by Thanksgiving week, turkey prices could be as much as 50% more than they were last year.

Inflation is not the only factor behind the higher prices for turkey. Falling prices in 2019 led turkey producers to trim their flocks, and the COVID-19 pandemic caused even further disruption to the supply chain. Even more troubling, an avian flu epidemic has already infected 47.76 million turkeys across 25 states so far this year.

Both Washington, D.C., and Boston top the list for top-tier turkey, and consumers living there can expect to pay around $4.43 and $4.34 per pound, respectively. Less expensive turkeys can still be found in some metro areas. In the metro areas of Portland, Maine, and Manchester, New Hampshire, turkeys are priced at a more reasonable $0.95 per pound. Just make sure not to wait until the last minute to buy your bird.

At this point, many consumers may be tempted to go cold turkey and construct a meal entirely made of side dishes. Not so fast: those prices have also increased. But in some places, the costs are much higher than in others.

Two store-bought pumpkin pies in Little Rock, Arkansas, will cost $23, while in Killeen, Texas, customers will pay just $8 for the same two pies. Meanwhile, the cranberry sauce that only your Aunt Gladys eats will cost as much as $7 in Boise City, Idaho. In Montgomery, Alabama, two cans of cranberry sauce will cost much less at $3.

And that six-pack and bottle of wine that makes it easier to deal with your uncle’s annual state-of-the-union address about politics? Seattle residents will shell out $27 for the good cheer, but in Indianapolis, these refreshments will cost you just $13.

This year, inflation experienced its largest increase since 1981, and when it comes to the price of groceries, we may not see relief anytime soon. Rising energy and labor costs tend to trickle down to the consumer, and supply chain disruptions since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic are still resulting in shortages and higher prices for certain items. Food insecurity in the United States is at an all-time high, making it challenging for many Americans to afford the costs of a Thanksgiving dinner this year.

Creating a holiday budget plan can help keep costs down, not just for Thanksgiving but for the entire holiday season. Be creative about other ways to save money, such as by booking airline tickets and car rentals well in advance of the holidays or finding the best travel credit cards that offer cash back or discounts on future travel. Consumers should be careful, though, to use credit cards responsibly in order to not take on too much holiday debt.

For Thanksgiving dinner itself, consider hosting a potluck and asking guests to bring at least one side dish or beverage. Planning ahead can also help, given that costs go up the week before Thanksgiving. Keep an eye out for Thanksgiving turkey sales or deals on specific ingredients in the weeks leading up to the holiday, especially at big retailers like Costco or Sam’s Club.

MoneyGeek analyzed average retail prices of various grocery store items across 122 metro areas with a population of 250,000 people or more using 2022 data from the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER) and Instacart.

We used C2ER grocery item price data to construct prices for various Thanksgiving side dishes, including mashed potatoes, stuffing, bread/rolls, peas and corn, and refreshments for a party of six.

We used Instacart to research prices for various Thanksgiving meal items that were not included in the C2ER data, such as turkey, pumpkin pie, cranberry sauce and flour. Stores we gathered prices from included Publix, Safeway, Winn-Dixie, Kroger, Wegmans, Albertsons, Walmart, Target, Stop & Shop, Harris Teeter, Sam’s Club, Costco and Fresh Market. We removed the average 15% markup for any prices researched using Instacart to reflect more accurate in-store prices.

We also analyzed the USDA’s National Retail Report for turkey prices per pound by year (for the week of Thanksgiving) to analyze cost changes. We analyzed turkey prices per pound from November 12, 2021, to November 19, 2021, to explore how costs changed leading up to the week of Thanksgiving.

If you have any questions about our findings or methodology, please reach out to Melody Kasulis via email at melody@moneygeek.com.

The data points presented are defined as follows:

• Whole, Fresh Turkey: Average price of a 10-pound, fresh hen using dollars per pound and multiplied by 10, which is estimated to feed six people.
• Side Dishes: The average cost of all side dishes, including mashed potatoes, stuffing, pumpkin pie, cranberry sauce, peas and corn, and refreshments.
• Total Meal Cost: The average cost of a 10-pound whole, fresh turkey and side dishes.